Friday, May 27, 2011

NWS predicts hot temperatures next week; could create flood conditions

The National Weather Service is starting to sound the alarm about warm weather next week, which could trigger rapid snowmelt and possible flooding. From today's forecast discussion (issued 3:33 p.m. today by the Denver/Boulder office):

BY MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND WINDS TURN WESTERLY WHICH WILL START THE BIG WARM UP INITIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS SHOW STRONG AND STEADY WARMING AS THE HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE UPR 80S/LOWER 90S...WITH HIGH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S. BUT IT'S THE NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THAT WILL BE ON MOST CONCERN AS THESE READINGS WILL ACCELERATE THE MELTING OF THE RECORD SNOWPACK... LEADING TO HEAVY RUNOFF AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON MANY HIGH COUNTRY STREAMS AND CREEKS.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE FOURMILE CANYON AREA. 
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S...IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPID SNOW MELT OF THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK. LOW LYING AREAS NEAR MOUNTAIN RIVERS AND CREEKS CAN EXPECT FLOODING WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

This forecast discussion changes every 12 hours as new forecasts are published.