Friday, May 13, 2011

May 1 forecast brings increased runoff expectations

Northern Water released its May streamflow forecast last week. The May 1 snowpack breaks records for the Blue River, Upper Colorado, Willow Creek, Cache la Poudre and Big Thompson basins. And it's not just in our area - many SNOTEL sites across the Western U.S. broke records for snow water equivalent accumulation this year.

The first SNOTEL stations were established 30 years ago; hydrologically speaking, that's not a very long period of record. So although this year's record snowpack is notable, should we consider it exceptional?

We might want to consider it. A much longer-standing record has been smashed too: the Snow Course at Cameron Pass, which has been around since 1936. The chart here shows the May 1 snow water equivalent, which has 17 percent more water than the previous record (1986)!

However, a record-breaking snowpack doesn't necessarily translate into record-breaking runoff, especially in Northern Water's East Slope watersheds. We need precipitation on top of melting snow to break those records. Still, two of our West Slope basins, the Upper Colorado and Willow Creek, are expected to produce record-breaking runoff this year from snowmelt alone.